Possible scenario
Clean Orbital Success
45% Chance
SpaceX conducts the planned Monday Starship mission and achieves the core orbital objectives. This is the most market-positive path because it validates progress after prior explosions and the 2026 FAA investigation requirement.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+5.8%
- PL+1.2%
- RKLB-1.1%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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