Possible scenario
Accountability Disputes Grow
18% Chance
Public grief could evolve into demands for independent scrutiny of command decisions before and during the fire. This would prolong the story politically and legally, but still with negligible direct market implications.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.