Possible scenario
Accident Finding Dominates
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Canadian Armed Forces board of inquiry finds the deaths resulted from a fast-moving grass fire, high winds, and training-risk assumptions rather than deliberate misconduct. The Department of National Defence focuses on procedural corrections, family support, and public transparency.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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