Possible scenario
Infrastructure Campaign Escalates
20% Chance
Russia follows the data-center strikes with additional cyber and missile attacks on telecom exchanges, energy substations, and mobile-network infrastructure. This becomes a more serious geopolitical escalation, with modest global risk-off effects over the next one to two trading days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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