Possible scenario
Contained Service Disruption
45% Chance
Ukraine absorbs the strike through backup routing, mobile network workarounds, satellite terminals, and previously relocated government data. Civilian services remain degraded in some cities, but military command-and-control and core state functions continue operating.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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