Possible scenario
Sustained Strike Campaign
43% Chance
The Trump administration continues a limited maritime interdiction campaign against suspected cartel vessels, arguing the February terrorist designations and Pentagon targeting order provide legal authority. The most likely path is a steady operational tempo with protests from Caracas and rights groups but no immediate military response.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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