Possible scenario
Legal Oversight Pushback
27% Chance
Legality concerns reported in December 2025 resurface as lawmakers, military lawyers, and civil-liberties groups challenge the administration's theory of armed conflict with cartels. This scenario slows or narrows the campaign without ending it entirely.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.