Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction
20% Chance
China is likely to reject the allegations and accuse Washington of politicizing law enforcement. The base case is a rhetorical clash, but a sharper response could temporarily weigh on sectors most exposed to U.S.-China restrictions.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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