Possible scenario
Transition Friction Persists
28% Chance
The restructuring creates short-term confusion over logistics, reporting lines, and authority between the General Staff and the six frontline groupings. Ukraine avoids a major collapse, but several brigades complain that the new model initially slows artillery and drone support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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