Possible scenario
Russia Tests Seams
22% Chance
Moscow interprets the command split as a window to probe for gaps before the new Ukrainian structure settles. Russian forces increase pressure along one or two axes, using glide bombs, drones, and infantry assaults to stress the new groupings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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