Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
18% Chance
Oman, the United States, or the United Nations pushes Riyadh and the Houthis toward a pause after Egypt's authorization increases escalation risk. Egypt keeps troops on standby or in non-combat roles while diplomacy tests whether the Houthis will halt attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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