Possible scenario
Direct Egypt-Houthi Clashes
28% Chance
Egyptian forces become directly involved in defensive combat after further Houthi launches against Saudi territory. Cairo may authorize limited retaliatory support, increasing the perception that the Yemen conflict is widening.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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