Possible scenario
Prolonged Fuel Squeeze
45% Chance
Refined-product exports from the Gulf remain stuck around one-quarter to one-third of pre-war levels as refinery damage, war-risk insurance, and convoy limits constrain loadings. Governments avoid a complete fuel panic through reserve releases, but diesel, jet fuel, and freight costs stay elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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