Possible scenario
Negotiated Corridor Reopens
25% Chance
US, Omani, Qatari, and European diplomacy produces a limited understanding around escorted refined-product shipments. The arrangement does not end the war, but it raises effective Gulf product flows enough to ease the worst diesel and jet-fuel shortages.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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