Possible scenario
NATO Deterrence Tightens
25% Chance
Germany, NATO, and the EU respond to Wadephul’s warning with additional defense deployments, sanctions preparation, and military aid to Ukraine. This path is plausible because Berlin has already increased Ukraine support and sees Russian escalation as unlikely to stop after diplomacy alone.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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