Possible scenario
Fragile Diplomatic Stabilization
20% Chance
Despite Wadephul’s public warning, the first senior German-Russian contact since 2022 keeps a narrow diplomatic channel open. This outcome would not resolve the Ukraine war, but it could reduce near-term tail risk if both sides want to prevent accidental escalation around NATO territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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