Possible scenario
Phased Route Works
45% Chance
The Home Office, UNHCR and local councils process Gaza and Afghan referrals in stages, prioritizing children, medical cases and people with UK family links. Arrivals are meaningful but controlled, limiting political and market spillovers.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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