Possible scenario
Bottlenecks Limit Arrivals
25% Chance
Housing shortages, safeguarding reviews and stretched council budgets slow the reopening of the UN route. The policy remains in place, but arrivals fall below the numbers implied by the initial announcement.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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