Possible scenario
Watchdog Review Opens
45% Chance
The most likely path is a formal but bounded review by one or more federal watchdogs, such as the DHS inspector general, the Office of Special Counsel, or GAO. The probe focuses on whether DHS improperly diverted border funds and whether the ads violated federal limits on taxpayer-funded political promotion.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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