Possible scenario
Administration Contains Fight
25% Chance
The Trump administration argues that the ads promoted border policy rather than the president personally, narrowing the dispute to statutory interpretation. FCC Chair Brendan Carr's refusal to review the ads gives the administration procedural cover, at least in the short term.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.