Possible scenario
Rates Retake Control
20% Chance
The record put volume may be a symptom of the larger macro driver: higher real yields after the Fed's latest tightening. In this scenario, the next move in equities is dictated less by options mechanics and more by Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Fed communication.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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