Possible scenario
Hedging Pressure Persists
40% Chance
Record put notional is most likely a sign that institutional investors are still adding protection after the $1.1 trillion S&P 500 selloff and the jump in Treasury yields. In this path, hedging demand remains high but does not become a systemic liquidity event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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