Possible scenario
Transactional Thaw Holds
40% Chance
The pardon is treated as part of a narrow diplomatic exchange rather than a broad strategic realignment. Baku, Paris and Brussels reduce public confrontation while keeping disputes over Armenia, political prisoners and sanctions policy unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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