Possible scenario
Political Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
Opposition parties use the arrest and the wider unrest to attack Macron's ability to maintain order after repeated government crises. The issue shifts from policing to parliamentary survival, increasing pressure on the prime minister and hardening the divide between LFI and the National Rally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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