Possible scenario
Authorities Contain Unrest
45% Chance
French police and prosecutors treat the Elysee threat as an isolated criminal case while keeping a larger security perimeter around Paris institutions. Emmanuel Macron's government avoids a fresh escalation by separating the arrest from broader student and pension-related protests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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