Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Agribusiness-aligned lawmakers and state-level politicians push back against enforcement costs, fines, land embargoes, and Indigenous-territory protections. Deforestation remains far below Bolsonaro-era peaks, but uncertainty rises around whether the current pace can be sustained.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- JBS-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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