Possible scenario
Durable Amazon Gains
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the reported 40-year low becomes a credible trend rather than a one-off data point. Lula’s enforcement agencies, state governments, satellite monitoring, and pressure from EU supply-chain rules keep illegal clearing constrained, improving Brazil’s ESG profile and market access for compliant exporters.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- JBS+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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