U.S. Aid Rupture
−0.8%
The White House escalates from diplomatic pressure to conditionality, tying military aid or intelligence-sharing to acceptance of a Donbas settlement. This is less likely than continued bargaining but remains realistic given the timeline of repeated U.S. pressure and Kyiv’s public refusal.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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