Donbas Escalation
−1.0%
Moscow exploits the diplomatic split by intensifying operations in Donetsk and Luhansk, betting that Ukraine’s supply outlook has weakened. This is a lower-probability but serious scenario because Putin has already rejected a frontline freeze and demanded all of Donbas.
What it moves
- Industrials+2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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