Possible scenario
Winter Grid Offensive
25% Chance
Moscow uses the mass drone attack as the opening stage of a broader campaign against Ukraine's power grid before winter. The likely goal is to degrade air defenses, electricity distribution, and civilian morale while forcing Kyiv to spend scarce interceptors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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