Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
45% Chance
Russia continues large drone barrages against Kyiv and nearby energy or logistics targets, while Ukraine answers with drones against Moscow, oil depots, and Volga-region military infrastructure. The conflict remains geographically contained inside Russia and Ukraine, limiting broad market fallout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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