Possible scenario
Swift Containment
45% Chance
Polish authorities present evidence that the arrested man had a credible plan but limited operational capability and no broad network. Donald Tusk's government increases protective measures while prosecutors move quickly, reducing political and market spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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