Possible scenario
Political Confrontation
25% Chance
The assassination plot becomes another front in Poland's institutional conflict between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and conservative President Karol Nawrocki. Emergency security measures, judicial disputes and partisan accusations prolong uncertainty without producing a constitutional breakdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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