Possible scenario
Limited Force Majeure
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a formal force majeure notice covering Sharara-related volumes while NOC keeps negotiations open with the armed group controlling valves. The production loss remains material for Libya but small relative to global oil supply, limiting the immediate market impact.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- TTE-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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