Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
31% Chance
The armed group maintains the blockade and negotiations fail to produce a quick reopening. Libya's reduced output lasts long enough to support a modest crude risk premium, though the shock remains well below a global energy crisis.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Tickers
- TTE-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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