Narrow Policing Reset

London and Paris replace the collapsed one-in-one-out arrangement with a narrower operational deal focused on police deployments, surveillance, and intelligence sharing around Calais and Dunkirk. This is the most likely path because both Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron still have incentives to show cooperation without defending a politically exposed exchange mechanism.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.