Possible scenario
Crossings And Backlog Rise
25% Chance
The end of the exchange framework weakens deterrence and allows smugglers to advertise that returns to France are unlikely. UK asylum accommodation, casework, and border processing costs rise again, creating a direct political problem for the Starmer government.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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