Possible scenario
Strategic Partnership Deepens
25% Chance
The trade target becomes part of a broader strategic alignment between Viktor Orbán’s government and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration. Energy security, defense manufacturing, and transport corridors receive political priority, building on Türkiye’s role as a Russian and regional energy conduit.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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