Narrow Sanctions Carve-Out

The U.S. grants or prepares a tightly scoped waiver for due diligence, safety, or technical assessment work tied to Russian Arctic assets. This would not amount to a full reset, but it would mark the first practical opening for U.S. energy companies since Exxon exited Russia in 2022.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.