Possible scenario
Dispute Reopens Publicly
25% Chance
The denial does not end the story, and additional leaks revive questions about whether the U.S. conditioned intelligence support on restraint. The base case within this branch is a limited policy dispute rather than a complete intelligence break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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