Possible scenario
Denial Stabilizes Ties
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the denial reflects a deliberate effort by Washington and Kyiv to contain the dispute. U.S. intelligence sharing continues, while both sides avoid public language suggesting a formal cutoff or ultimatum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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