Possible scenario
Clashes Escalate
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that fresh confrontations between protesters and police expand the story beyond labor criticism into a public-order issue. The near-term market impact remains limited globally but would weigh on Thailand-linked travel, retail and financial names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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