Possible scenario
Regulators Force Retreat
35% Chance
The most likely path is rapid scrutiny from the European Commission, national competition authorities, and possibly the U.S. FTC because Meta is already defending itself against monopoly claims and DMA probes. The ad-link ban gives regulators a concrete exclusionary-conduct allegation tied directly to TikTok and ByteDance.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
Tickers
- META-4.3%
- SNAP+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.