Possible scenario
Negotiated Carve-Outs
30% Chance
Meta and ByteDance reach a technical or contractual compromise that lets some TikTok ad links run with disclosure, verification, or routing restrictions. This outcome preserves Meta's stated platform-safety rationale while avoiding a direct regulatory confrontation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- META+1.2%
- SNAP+0.5%
- GOOG+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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