• 

  

  35%

  0.0%

  Security Review Slows Project

  Federal and D.C. officials slow the arch conversion while security engineers reassess munitions storage, sniper positions, and public-access risks. This is the most likely path because the current warning gives agencies a face-saving way to adjust the plan without abandoning it.

  Industrials −0.1%

• 

  

  30%

  +0.1%

  Plan Proceeds Hardened

  The administration accepts some risk-mitigation recommendations but proceeds with a fortified arch complex. This outcome is plausible because earlier steps show a sustained federal commitment to keeping armed Guard capabilities in Washington through 2029.

  Industrials +0.3% · Technology +0.1% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  

  22%

  −0.1%

  Legal Fight Intensifies

  D.C. officials convert the terrorism-target warning into a stronger legal challenge against the arch and Guard deployment. The confrontation is politically significant but still mostly local, limiting market effects.

  Industrials −0.2%

• 

  

  13%

  −0.4%

  Incident Forces Reassessment

  A security incident or credible plot validates D.C. officials’ warning that the arch could become a target. This is less likely than legal or administrative outcomes, but the asset’s symbolic nature makes it a realistic tail risk.

  Consumer Services −0.4% · Industrials +0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.