• 

  42%

  0.0%

  Construction Begins

  The Trump administration and National Park Service move ahead with site preparation around Nov 5 despite Arlington County’s pending lawsuit. This is the most likely path because the Park Service has already advanced the project after legal warnings, and the headline signals an imminent start rather than a new review.

• 

  28%

  0.0%

  Court Delays Project

  A federal judge grants Arlington County partial or temporary relief, finding that the government has not adequately addressed environmental, historic-preservation, or local-impact claims. The administration appeals, but the start date becomes legally uncertain.

• 

  20%

  0.0%

  Administrative Compromise

  The administration avoids a binary court fight by modifying the process, schedule, or public-facing description of the arch. This path preserves the project while reducing litigation risk and local political opposition.

• 

  10%

  −0.2%

  Political Escalation

  The arch becomes a broader confrontation over federal authority, local consent, and militarized infrastructure in the capital region. This is less likely than routine construction or court delay, but the prior litigation and Park Service warnings create a plausible path to escalation.

  Consumer Services −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.