Possible scenario
Temporary Containment
30% Chance
The closures are explained as a short-term security precaution following specific intelligence shared by U.S. authorities. Brazil cooperates with perimeter security and avoids new visa or ambassadorial retaliation, allowing diplomatic activity to restart gradually.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.