Possible scenario
Brazil Retaliates Further
20% Chance
Brazil treats the Australian action as coordinated political pressure with Washington and responds with reciprocal diplomatic measures. This hardens the standoff and raises the chance of further visa restrictions, trade inspections or protest-related disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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