Possible scenario
Tax Coalition Fractures
45% Chance
The teachers union rejection accelerates the erosion caused by Gavin Newsom's opposition and the NBER estimate of a $39 billion net loss. Labor, education, and Democratic elected officials become split enough that the measure loses its early polling advantage.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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