Possible scenario
Regulators Halt Filing
30% Chance
The CFTC or a court intervenes before trading begins, citing the agency's September proposal to treat event contracts as swaps and the unresolved CME litigation. This would slow Kalshi's expansion into commodity-linked perpetuals and protect incumbent futures exchanges in the near term.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- CME+1.5%
- ICE+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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